November 5
4:00 p.m.
Wagar 231

Abstract

Modeling Flood Inundation in a Changing Environment – Application of Ensemble Hydroclimate Projections and a Computationally Efficient Hydrodynamic Model

Modeling flood inundation in a changing environment is a challenging task, as it requires computationally intensive simulations of large-scale hydrologic processes and detailed hydraulic responses driven by ensembles of downscaled future meteorological forcings. With advances in computing power, data availability, and modeling tools, we now have the capability to overcome many of these challenges. On the hydroclimate modeling side, various downscaling and bias-correction techniques have been developed to transform raw Earth system model outputs into actionable inputs for ensemble hydrologic and water management simulations, thereby improving long-term water resources planning. On the hydraulic modeling side, new software frameworks that fully leverage modern GPU-centric high-performance computing systems have been developed, enabling high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations of flood propagation with fewer simplifications. In this talk, I will present ongoing research efforts at Oak Ridge National Laboratory focused on developing a modeling framework for future runoff and streamflow projections, a GPU-accelerated two-dimensional hydrodynamic model – TRITON (https://triton.ornl.gov/), and their integrated application for studying flood inundation under changing environmental conditions. Several publicly available datasets and tools will be introduced, along with discussions of key challenges, emerging opportunities, and the potential role of artificial intelligence and machine learning in advancing this modeling framework.
 
Portrait of man in glasses with blue shirt and tie.

Biography

Dr. Shih-Chieh Kao
Distinguished R&D Staff and Water Resource Science and Engineering Group Leader
Environmental Science Division
Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Dr. Shih-Chieh Kao is a Distinguished R&D Staff and Group Leader of the Water Resource Science and Engineering Group within the Environmental Science Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). He also serves as Program Manager for the ORNL Water Power Program, overseeing a diverse portfolio of research projects supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). His research focuses on high-performance computing, hydrologic modeling, flood simulation, hydro-climate impact assessment, and hydropower resource evaluation. Since 2011, Dr. Kao has led the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment, an effort to evaluate future water availability to support national hydropower production. He is a co-creator of the TRITON inundation model and the Dayflow dataset. Dr. Kao has served as a frequent reviewer for more than 20 scientific and engineering journals and has received several distinguished awards, including the 2008 Purdue Civil Engineering Best Dissertation Award, the 2009 Journal of Hydrologic Engineering Outstanding Reviewer Award, the 2013 ICSH Statistical Hydrology Best Paper Award, and the 2020 Platform for Advanced Scientific Computing Best Paper Award. In 2023, he was named a Fellow of the American Society of Civil Engineers–Environmental & Water Resources Institute (ASCE–EWRI). He also contributed to a National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) study on modernizing probable maximum precipitation estimates in a changing climate.