HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL ASPECTS OF THE
1994 FLOODING
IN THE UPPER PO RIVER BASIN:
FREQUENCY CHARACTERISTICS AND REAL-TIME PREDICTABILITY
Armando Brath
Institute of Hydraulic Structures
University of Bologna
Viale Risorgimento,2 40136 Bologna, Italy
The predictability
of the flood event occurred in the Piedmont region (Northern Italy) during
November 1994 is investigated. Statistical
analyses are performed on both rainfall and hydrometric observations in order
to assess the return period of the flood event. The possibility of forecasting the flood event
is also investigated. At the present
state of technology real-time flood forecasting is limited in the region,
mainly because of the lack of reliable real-time forecasting of rainfall. However, quantitative rainfall forecasts obtained
from the General Circulation Model of the European Center for Medium Range
Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are in good agreement with the observed precipitation
fields. Although these rainfall forecasts
are at present not suitable for real-time flood forecasting systems in small
basins, because of the insufficient space-time resolution, their use for flood
warning in medium and large basins seems to offer interesting perspectives.